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Steel market price forecast on September 9

Date:Sep 9,2020

Rebar: On September 9, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 3855 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday, snails continued to adjust weakly, and the market mentality was more cautious. In the morning, domestic construction steel prices consolidated within a narrow range. From the perspective of transactions, the snails have continued to weaken. Most businesses reported that speculative demand in the market has slowed down significantly, and downstream procurement needs are relatively ordinary, and overall transactions have weakened. As for steel mills, due to the high cost of raw materials such as iron ore and scrap steel, manufacturers are more willing to pay. In terms of resources, the current market thread resources are relatively sufficient, while the thread reel resources in some regions are relatively short. In the short term, on the one hand, steel mills have a strong willingness to uphold prices and traders have a higher cost of obtaining goods, which will support the spot price; on the other hand, the snails will continue to adjust weakly, and the transaction of high-priced resources will be blocked, and high-priced resources exist in the short-term market. Certain adjustment pressure. In summary, it is expected that the price of domestic construction steel may be weakened in the short term.


Hot-rolled coils: On September 9, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4021 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market's early quotations fell slightly, and after the decline, the market traded generally, and the late afternoon session continued to weaken. The spot market had a thin trading atmosphere and the phenomenon of merchants selling goods appeared concentrated. In terms of resources, the current pressure on arrivals in East China is still the greatest. There is a phenomenon of port gathering at the terminals. The bulk order resources in North China are concentrated in arrival. Short-term market pressure continues to maintain that East China is greater than South China and North China. It is expected that today's hot-rolled prices will fluctuate weakly.


Cold rolled coil: On September 9, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 4711 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 8th, hot coil futures fell weakly, and the raw material market was clearly lacking in confidence. From a fundamental point of view, local markets have reported that resources are tight and steel mills have not delivered shipments very quickly. In October, due to high order prices, traders were obviously not motivated to place orders. However, given that current demand has declined compared with August , The market fear of high sentiment gradually rises, does not rule out the trend of weak adjustment of cold rolled prices in the market outlook. On the whole, today's domestic cold rolled prices fluctuated weakly.


Medium and heavy plates: On September 9, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4031 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day. On August 8, the price of goods fluctuated and weakened. In the afternoon, the ex-factory price of Tangshan billet was reduced by 20 yuan/ton. Under the influence of this, market merchants were cautious and wait and see. The overall market transactions have not changed much recently. Due to insufficient market resources, especially in North China and Northeast China, there is a serious shortage of low-alloy specifications, which has certain support for prices. On the whole, it is expected that today's domestic plate prices may continue to consolidate.


Imported ore: On September 9, the imported iron ore market fluctuated slightly. Qingdao Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported 949 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 62.5% PB lump ore reported 982 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.


Coke: On September 9, the coke market was on the strong side, and the second round of 50 yuan/ton increase in coke basically landed. In terms of supply, coke companies started at a high level and coke inventories are low, and most of them are still optimistic about the market outlook; in terms of steel mills, Tangshan started a week-long "zero point" operation at 0:00 on the 7th, and there are 3 steel plants in Fengnan area. Blast furnace maintenance affects about 5,600 tons of molten iron on an average day, and it is expected to be repaired until the end of this month. In terms of ports, due to limited space, the cost of collection ports has increased, the volume of collection ports has declined significantly, and port inventories have gradually decreased. On the whole, the coke market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.


Scrap steel: On September 9th, the scrap steel market remained stable, and price adjustment steel mills still focused on rising prices. Some steel mills in the north took the lead to test the market with a slight price drop. On the 8th, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2485 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Scrap supply and demand are tightly balanced, and the operation will be consolidated in the short term.

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