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Steel market price forecast on August 28

Date:Aug 28,2020

Rebar: On August 28, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 3826 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From the perspective of transactions, yesterday most businesses reported that the market transactions in the morning were normal. In the afternoon, as the snail futures weakened again, the market wait-and-see sentiment spread and transactions slowed down. On the news, Mysteel data showed that construction steel production declined slightly this week, while steel mills and market inventories both increased, and apparent consumption continued to decline, indicating that downstream demand for construction steel has slowed down. In the short term, when demand in the downstream peak season is less than expected and the market mentality is becoming more cautious, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices may continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

 

Hot-rolled coil: On August 28, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3992 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday, the black commodity futures market surpassed and fell. The spot market’s early quotations were temporarily stable and transactions were average. In recent days, market transactions have been relatively weak. In the afternoon, the market has fallen and market prices have begun to fall. The performance in East China is particularly obvious. The quantity of materials going south has increased significantly. Although the arrival of goods has not been concentrated in the short term, it is expected that there will be more arrivals in the later period. The market fears will increase, and the phenomenon of low-cost shipments is more obvious. Other regions also showed weakness in high-level transactions, and low-level transactions. It is expected that short-term hot-rolled prices may fluctuate mainly due to weakness.

 

Cold rolled coils: On August 28, the average price of 1.0mm cold coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,581 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From the perspective of demand, the steel mills performed well in receiving orders in September, especially the proportion of direct supply. According to the market resource arrival cycle, the general material resources in the market from September to October are not large, and the demand is supported; from the cost point of view, Due to the good orders received by steel mills, and in accordance with the maintenance of some steel mills from September to October, it is expected that the futures price policy of steel mills in October will increase. Therefore, combined with the dual support of demand and cost, it is believed that cold-rolled spot prices will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

 

Medium and heavy plates: On August 28, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4003 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although the cargo price rose and fell yesterday, the price trend of Tangshan steel billet has been stable recently. Affected by this, the price trend of medium and heavy plate in the dominant market has been consolidating. In terms of transactions, many regional merchants reported that the current demand is poor, and high-level transactions are not smooth, which has an adverse impact on mentality. In terms of resources, although the short-term ex-factory prices of steel mills are still high, some customers have recently reported that steel mills are under pressure in order to receive orders, and prices have fallen darkly, and short-term costs may be loosened. From the perspective of market materials, due to the difference in the speed of the arrival of resources between regions, there are gaps in some specifications and materials in various regions. On the whole, the current steel market is showing signs of turbulent consolidation, coupled with poor downstream demand, it is expected that today's plate prices may be dominated by consolidation.

 

Imported ore: On August 28, the spot market for imported iron ore was generally active, the port spot market price fluctuated little, some steel mills had general purchasing demand, and there were few market inquiries. Jingtang Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported 929 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

 

Coke: On August 28, the coke market was temporarily operating stably. At present, coking steel companies are still operating at a high level. The profits of coke companies are still good. The order and shipments of coke companies are good. The overall inventory is at a low level. The market is optimistic in the near future. , Coke is mainly purchased on-demand, and the capacity utilization rate of downstream steel mills’ blast furnaces continues to be at a high level; in terms of ports, port spot prices are operating steadily, and inventories in the two ports are generally stable. On the whole, the coke market has been operating stably recently.

 

Scrap steel: On August 28, the scrap steel market was consolidating and the price-adjusted steel mills made steady adjustments. The scrap purchase prices of mainstream steel mills remained stable. On the 27th, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,449 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of steel mills, some steel mills have seen a slight improvement in their arrivals after a round of growth, so scrap prices have remained stable. In terms of the market, traders reported that it is still difficult to receive goods at the bases, the inventory is basically at a low level during the year, the effect of stimulating the arrival of the steel mills is significantly weakened, and the market transactions are average. The consumption of steel mills increased slightly this week, and the low level of arrivals rebounded, but it is still not ideal. The increase in arrivals of mainstream steel mills is more obvious. Therefore, on the whole, scrap steel prices are strongly supported, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Some regions are wary of the market's scrap price correction. It is expected that today's scrap steel market prices will continue to consolidate.

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